We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • A plethora of UK data, however, external factors remain the key driver as GBP/USD edges towards 200DMA. Get your #currencies update from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/bWJGyiUSpQ https://t.co/qAg8NrAZor
  • The Japanese #Yen may rise if a growing number of coronavirus cases around the world puts a premium on anti-risk assets. JPY’s gains may be amplified if corporate earnings fail to impress investors. Get your #currencies update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/yP4revKq6J https://t.co/7smgRKspLU
  • The US Dollar index (DXY) may face range bound conditions over the coming days amid the failed attempt to test the June low (95.75). Get your #currencies update from @DavidJSong here: https://t.co/GsBcE6Z4G6 https://t.co/HIJ4vvcBIg
  • The Dow Jones could fall based on positioning signals, will the growth-linked Australian Dollar and Canadian Dollar follow? If so, what are the technical barriers ahead? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/yJrlR5C00P https://t.co/FzkIBlJLHG
  • Further gains in USD/IDR could be curbed as USD/PHP establishes a floor around 2017 lows. USD/MYR may fall next as USD/SGD fast approaches a key falling trend line.Get your #ASEAN currencies market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/9JgZm2n8Fl https://t.co/FeBuqJ64qB
  • Japanese Yen Outlook Bullish on Coronavirus Surge, US Earnings Seasonhttps://fxnews.org/?/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/jpy/2020/07/11/Japanese-Yen-Outlook-Bullish-on-Coronavirus-Surge-US-Earnings-Season.html
  • The New Zealand Dollar is aiming higher, with NZD/USD eyeing fresh yearly highs while AUD/NZD may be carving out a bearish Head and Shoulders chart pattern. Get your $NZDUSD market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/osFxXvq5xF https://t.co/sKBkNvMvPz
  • Did you know a Doji candlestick signals market indecision and the potential for a change in direction. What are the top five types of Doji candlesticks? Find out: https://t.co/td5WA4hCZC https://t.co/3qXauAsm2Q
  • The Dow Jones and S&P 500 nervously face the earnings season as coronavirus deaths could reimpose lockdowns. The DAX 30 eyes an EU rescue package as the FTSE 100 awaits GDP data. Get your #equities update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/A0k6JMMBOg https://t.co/iihbEYsfgi
  • It was a surprisingly quiet week in oil, with the net of this week’s price action showing a doji. But a longer-term formation has built that may open the door to that next trend. Get your #commodities update from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/zz6M2ce55V https://t.co/UxlbpgLBkq
US Dollar May Rise: Non-Farm Payrolls, Jobless Claims, FOMC Minutes Eyed

US Dollar May Rise: Non-Farm Payrolls, Jobless Claims, FOMC Minutes Eyed

2020-06-27 07:00:00
Daniel Dubrovsky, Analyst
Share:
US Dollar Chart

Source: IG Charts

US Dollar Forecast: Bullish

  • US Dollar may rise as initial jobless claims stabilize
  • Data may surprise higher: NFPs, PMIs and sentiment
  • FOMC minutes may sink S&P 500, boosting Greenback

The haven-linked US Dollar remains glued to the broader trend in investors’ risk appetite. Generally speaking, the USD has been weakening since equities bottomed in late March. Lately however, the slope of depreciation in the Greenback has been flattening. This is as the S&P 500 has struggled to find meaningful direction since the turn of June. What is the fundamental road ahead?

Heading into the holiday-shortened week, investors will be anxiously awaiting May’s non-farm payrolls report. April’s data was a blowout, far surpassing even the most pessimistic economists’ expectations. More of the same could be ahead. Data out of the world’s largest economy has increasingly outperformed relative to expectations. Examples were seen this past week with durable goods orders and Markit PMIs.

Yet, a warning sign is brewing. On the chart below, my majors-based US Dollar index can be seen declining alongside a gradual easing in weekly initial jobless claims. Lately, the US has been struggled to make deeper dents into the dismal initial claims tally, which appears to be stabilizing at historically elevated levels. That could be concerning for those betting on a swift economic recovery.

Introduction to Forex News Trading
Introduction to Forex News Trading
Recommended by Daniel Dubrovsky
What does it take to trade around data?
Get My Guide

US Dollar Versus Initial Jobless Claims

US Dollar versus initial jobless claims

Chart Created in TradingView

*Majors-Based US Dollar Index Averages USD Against: EUR, JPY, GBP and AUD

Equities could be at risk to rising cases of the coronavirus if traders anticipate certain hotspots to reverse lockdown easing. The US - he world’s largest economy - reported a record rise in daily cases this past week as confirmed infections increased in states like California, Arizona and Texas. On a positive note, Covid-19 fatalities have not been following the same pace as general infections

Top Trading Lessons
Top Trading Lessons
Recommended by Daniel Dubrovsky
How can you overcome common pitfalls in FX trading?
Get My Guide

Counterbalancing what could be rosy consumer confidence, ISM manufacturing PMI and non-farm payrolls data are the minutes from June’s FOMC meeting. As a reminder, Chair Jerome Powell sank stocks after the central bank’s rather sobering assessment of the economic outlook. Similar cautious rhetoric from the minutes could rekindle risk aversion, likely boosting the US Dollar.

This is as the same aggressiveness in the Fed’s efforts to lubricate credit markets dwindles. On the chart below, the weekly change in the balance sheet has noticeably slowed. Two out of the past 3 weeks have seen contractions. This may leave traders yearning for more liquidity, offering a lift to the world’s reserve currency.

SP500 vs fed balance sheet

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Currency Analyst for FxNews.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

FxNews provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.