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S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Outlook: Rebalancing Flows May Boost Downside Risks

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Outlook: Rebalancing Flows May Boost Downside Risks

2020-06-30 12:34:00
Justin McQueen, Analyst

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Price Analysis & News

  • S&P 500 | Momentum Weakens as Lockdown Risks Rise
  • Nasdaq 100 | Bearish Divergence Holds

S&P 500 | Momentum Weakens as Lockdown Risks Rise

The S&P 500 trading below its 200DMA had been brief, after the index found support from the 50DMA. That said, momentum signals continue to weaken, despite yesterday’s bounce back, which in turn could see gains limited and capped below 3110, which marks the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement. Market participants will continue to monitor the virus case count, particularly in the southern states of America, which have had to halt plans of reopening and thus see lockdown risks resurface. Elsewhere, eyes will also be on month/quarter-end rebalancing shifts, whereby Citi has signalled a strong rotation from European and Japanese equities into fixed income.

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Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -1% 3% 2%
Weekly -8% 7% 2%
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S&P 500 Price Chart: Daily Time Frame

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Outlook: Rebalancing Flows May Boost Downside Risks

Source: IG

Nasdaq 100 | Bearish Divergence Holds

Since the pullback from its record high, the Nasdaq 100 has remained under pressure, particularly as the bearish RSI divergence holds. Given the aforementioned concerns of lockdown risks resurfacing on a state-wide basis, risks appear to be skewed to further weakness. As such, bears look for a retest of the pre-COVID record high sitting at 9750, which also marks yesterday’s low. That said, the broad uptrend remains intact for the Nasdaq 100 as central banks keep financial conditions loose. With this in mind, investors will be placing a close eye on Fed officials, most notably Powell and Brainard, in which the latter may elaborate further on Yield Curve Control (YCC).

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Nasdaq 100 Price Chart: Daily Time Frame

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Outlook: Rebalancing Flows May Boost Downside Risks

Source: IG

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

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