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Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Topping? EUR/AUD May Rise as EUR/CAD Falls

Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Topping? EUR/AUD May Rise as EUR/CAD Falls

2020-08-14 00:00:00
Daniel Dubrovsky, Analyst
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Euro, EUR/USD, EUR/AUD, EUR/CAD – Talking Points

  • On average. the Euro has been consolidating lately
  • Is EUR/USD readying to turn lower after a Doji?
  • EUR/AUD may rise next. Has EUR/CAD topped?

Euro Technical Analysis

The Euro has been struggling to find further upside momentum against some of its G10 counterparts. On the chart below is my majors-based Euro index. After breaking above the key 1.5344 – 1.5429 inflection range, prices accelerated higher before stopping short of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Since then, EUR has largely remained range bound. A break above 1.5657 could open the door to uptrend resumption. Guiding my Euro index higher is rising support from late February.

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Majors-Based Euro Index – Daily Chart

Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Topping? EUR/AUD May Rise as EUR/CAD Falls

Chart Created in TradingView

*Majors-Based EUR Index Averages Euro Versus USD, JPY, GBP and AUD

EUR/USD Technical Outlook

EUR/USD has been in a consolidation setting with prices ranging between 1.1916 and 1.1696 for most of this month so far. Prices stalled after the emergence of a Doji candlestick, which is a sign of indecision. Downside confirmation has been somewhat lacking, but a close under the lower bound of the Euro’s consolidation could open the door to a reversal. However, rising support from May could maintain the dominant uptrend in the event of short term gains. A push above 1.1916 exposes the 126.60% Fibonacci extension at 1.2028.

EUR/USD BEARISH
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 6% -5% -1%
Weekly 11% -7% 0%
What does it mean for price action?
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EUR/USD - Daily Chart

Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Topping? EUR/AUD May Rise as EUR/CAD Falls

Chart Created in TradingView

EUR/AUD Technical Outlook

The Euro could be readying to push higher against the Australian Dollar after the short-term 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) crossed above the medium-term 50-day one. This is known as a Golden Cross which is a bullish signal. Key resistance sits above at 1.6590 which has its beginnings from the beginning of this year. A daily close above this price could open the door to testing a range of resistance between 1.6773 and 1.6893. Otherwise, a turn lower places the focus on 1.6034 – 1.6117.

EUR/AUD - Daily Chart

Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Topping? EUR/AUD May Rise as EUR/CAD Falls

Chart Created in TradingView

EUR/CAD Technical Outlook

EUR/CAD has turned lower after stalling just under the March high at 1.5991. A daily close under 1.5588 would expose rising support from February which could reinstate the focus to the upside. Guiding the pair lower since late July has been short term falling resistance, pink line on the daily chart below. A push above this trend line could open the door for retesting the current 2020 peak. Otherwise, a descend through rising support exposes the 23.60% Fibonacci extension at 1.5461.

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EUR/CAD - Daily Chart

Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Topping? EUR/AUD May Rise as EUR/CAD Falls

Chart Created in TradingView

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Currency Analyst for FxNews.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

FxNews provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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